Multi-industry and multi-view, see the development
At the beginning of the year, the new pneumonia epidemic was rampant in the country. China used its national strength to fight the epidemic, but it was not valued by other countries in the world. Today, the domestic anti-epidemic resistance war is about to win, and the epidemic situation abroad has continued to deteriorate, affecting normal production and life. The construction machinery industry has also been deeply affected. Many foreign companies have begun to close factories and stop production, and domestically they have gradually started to get on track.
The needs of the construction machinery industry include infrastructure, real estate investment, renewal, and export. There are infrastructure projects, and the problem of where the money comes from has been solved. Among them, budgetary funds: increase the deficit rate to 3.6%, self-raised funds: special debt 3.75 trillion yuan, domestic loans: reduce the proportion of capital for some projects. Overall, it is expected that the growth rate of infrastructure investment will be 10% this year; the growth rate of real estate investment will be 2%; the updated part will continue to maintain high intensity under the background of stricter environmental protection policies; the growth rate of exports will be revised down to 15% due to the impact of the epidemic. It is estimated that the growth rate of the construction machinery industry will reach 10% this year.
excavator The global excavator market has reached 300 billion yuan. China's sales of excavators are expected to be 256,500 units in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%. Looking at the sales trend for the whole year, Q2 is expected to usher in the strongest peak season sales growth rate of 45% year-on-year, of which 50% in May. From a monthly point of view, the product structure has increased the proportion of big digging; but from an annual point of view, the proportion of small digging has increased. From the perspective of market structure, the increase in the proportion of domestic leading enterprises is a trend. Considering the multiple factors of product structure, price, scale effect, and cost, the future gross margin of excavators will increase steadily.
Concrete machinery Under the influence of product structure and price, the current revenue of concrete machinery has not returned to the historical peak. It is estimated that the growth rate of the concrete machinery industry will be 10% to 15% in 2020, which will usher in a peak sales in Q2. Compared with history, the proportion of sales of short boom pumps has increased; it has never been seen that as the peak of update comes, the proportion of long boom pumps will increase. The sales of mixer trucks will be closer to the regulations. At present, the pump truck is divided into two parts, and the competition pattern of the mixer truck is more scattered. With the increase in the proportion of long-arm pump truck sales, the gross profit margin of concrete machinery will continue to increase in the future.
crane The sales of truck cranes reached a record high in 2019, and the industry growth rate in 2020 will be 5% to 10%. The sales trend is expected to be high in the middle and low at both ends. At present, 25T products account for a large proportion, but the proportion of medium and large tonnages is increasing. At present, the truck crane is showing a situation of three points. As the price end stabilizes and the structure improves, there is still room for improvement in future gross profit margin. The concentrated demand on the construction machinery broke out, the supply-side capacity was limited, the epidemic affected the import of overseas components, and the product ushered in price increases under the contradiction between supply and demand. Compared with Caterpillar's internationalization, domestic construction machinery companies have great potential for improvement, and will follow the three-step strategy of internationalization of products, channels and production. From the perspective of the market value's improvement potential, the focus is also on internationalization. From the historical retrospective analysis, the chain ratio and year-on-year growth rate of construction machinery sales have forward-looking guidance for the stock price.