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The construction machinery industry is booming in 2020

by:Laike     2020-07-27
With the recent increase in the prices of major construction machinery products and the growth rate of excavator sales in April, which has increased by 60% year-on-year, it has been shown that the construction machinery industry's short-term prosperity is still high. market.

Affected by the new coronary pneumonia epidemic in 2020, the industry's demand rhythm may be disrupted, the off-season is not weak or throughout the year. Looking to the future, taking excavators as an example, considering the recent increase in counter-cyclical adjustment policies, it is expected that the proportion of new demand in excavator demand may increase in 2020, and the main driving force for the industry in 2021-2022 is still replacement demand. It is estimated that the domestic sales of excavators in 2020-2022 are expected to reach 229,700, 234,900 and 242,200, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10%, 2% and 3% respectively. If the manufacturer's credit policy is relaxed or the macro stimulus is strengthened, there is a possibility of further upward revisions to the sales forecast for excavators in 2020. Domestic substitution may become the key word for the next three years. In the context of the slowdown in investment growth, domestic substitution in the next three years (2020-2022) is one of the major investment opportunities in the construction machinery industry, which may be reflected in: 1. OEMs already have international competitiveness. Domestic OEMs are occupying the market with the quality of not losing foreign capital. Taking excavators as an example, the share of domestic excavators has increased from 42% in 2011 to 66% in 1Q20, of which there is still room for substitution in the big excavation market; 2. Zero Parts are entering the accelerated replacement interval.

Domestic component suppliers such as hydraulic parts and engines are facing the opportunity of industrial chain migration. Domestic brands have better after-sales service, faster response speed, and the cost-effectiveness of products may gradually show their advantages. New opportunities: Opportunities in the development stage of market segmentation.

From the perspective of industry development trends, there are two types of construction machinery subdivision products that deserve attention: small excavators. Judging from Japan's development experience, small excavators can replace manual labor due to wider use scenarios, and the future penetration rate may be further improved; high-altitude operation platforms. The aerial work platform is still in the introduction period in China. Because its construction efficiency is higher than that of scaffolding, as the proportion of maintenance in the construction scene increases, the penetration of the aerial work platform may further increase. In the stock market, competitive head companies are expected to benefit.
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